Pork Commentary, July 09, 2018
Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.
National Pork Industry Conference
This week we are attending the National Pork Industry Conference (NPIC) held annually (22 years) in the Kalahari Resort Hotel in Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin. A well-attended event with over 900 attendees, it is the largest annual conference in the U.S. that is held for the swine industry. Genesus is a lead sponsor of NPIC.
The conference kicked off Sunday night with a barbecue with select pork items prepared by Lynch Livestock. Most if not all attendees enjoyed the delicious food and fellowship.
NPIC Dinner provided by Lynch Livestock
After the barbecue there was an opening night reception held by Genesus that went from 8 pm to midnight. It appeared the hundreds that came enjoyed themselves with pig industry discussion ongoing for the duration.
Inspired yet? Understanding the Political Power of the Consumer Plate.
– Dr. Wes Jamison, Palm Beach Atlantic University –
- Internet empowers consumers to challenge status quo
- Allows disruptive protests
- The thing being protested is often secondary – or of little consequence – compared to the social functions of the conflict itself Internet enabled, identity fueled brand conflict
- Millennium generation being replaced by iGen now 16-22 years old
- First Generation that has been totally exposed to digital age – visual generation that is focused challenged
- iGen highly skeptical of persuasive messages that prove to conflict
- Active over “brand justice”
- Abhor brand hypocrisy
- Message must be Simple, Repetitive, Relevant, Valid
Meat Exports Update and What’s Happening in China?
– Travis Arp, Director of Market Access and Export Services, US Meat Export Federation –
- China producers losing money currently
- 95% of all U.S. bellies consumed in USA
- 50% of U.S. Hams exported
- Asia takes Pork variety – i.e. Snout, Ears, Feet, Tail, Tongue, Heart, Liver – adds real value to total carcass value
- U.S. exports increase carcass value $53.71
- Global Economic Growth positive for Pork Demand
- U.S. Pork Industry Growth positive for Pork Demand
- U.S. Pork Industry Growth has to go mostly Export markets
- U.S. Market Access and Politics – challenge with NAFTA, China and Mexico tariffs
- 86% of U.S. Pork exports to Mexico under 20% retaliatory tariff
- U.S. has big logistical advantage to Mexico – real cost advantage
- China takes 33% of all U.S. variety meat exports
- China tariff 62% on U.S. Pork
- Good news total U.S. Pork Exports up first 4 months 2018 compared to 2017 up 6%
- Pork Demand is increasing in non-traditional markets such as Central America, Colombia, South-East Asia as consumer spending power increases
Alternative Meat Trends and Their Impact On the Pork Industry
– Christine McCracken, Executive Director, Animal Protein, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness –
What are Alternative Proteins?
- Plant based in the past most products have failed. Have improved product lately. Plant based products now $1 billion per year. 30 million U.S. consumers are Flexitarian – wanting to lower their meat consumption
- Emerging – is cricket based – still a small market – 2 billion people eat insects in Asia and Africa used to increase protein base in different foods
- Lab Grown Meat – still being developed, can do test trials but real challenge is to get commercial scale. Also to produce product at a competitive price, big money being invested to find Lab Grown Meat
Growing Global Demand for Pork (2000-2030)
- High Income – 22%
- Upper Middle – 8%
- Lower Middle – 61%
- Low Income – 160%
More Pork will be consumed
*Will the name meat be banned for usage for Alternative products?
Global Market Update
– Jim Long, CEO-President, Genesus Inc. –
- In our talk we discussed the trends in the Global Markets:
- Global Mega Producers continue to increase production
- The rise of China Mega Producers – 4 largest Chinese owned
- Countries that import Pork have higher hog prices then Pork export countries
- 90% of World’s Pigs not in USA-Canada
- 43% of all Meat-Poultry consumed Globally is Pork
- China industry currently losing money – In May China sow herd decreased 800,000 plus!
- African Swine Fever – already in Poland if it continued into Germany and or Denmark, could be huge market changer
- Mexico sow herd grew 5.4% in 2017. Largest percentage increase in world – Mexico has been U.S. largest volume market
- China – Mexico Tariffs are directly hurting U.S. hog prices. In Canada government is going to use reactive tariff revenue to support effected industries i.e. steel. Will U.S. government do same for pig producers?
- U.S. unemployment at record low levels. Huge challenge for producers and packers. In our opinion will limit production increase.
- Future for industry to use technology available, latest nutritional diets, genetics, housing, equipment and health protocols – all global technologies are available